Predicting the demand of physician workforce: an international model based on "crowd behaviors"

Twelve factors that could possibly impact physicians' demand were chosen, and data of these factors from 130 countries (by reviewing 195) were extracted. Multiple stepwise-linear regression was used to derive the PD prediction model, and a split-sample cross-validation procedure was performed to evaluate the generalizability of the results.Using data from 130 countries, with the consideration of the correlation between variables, and preventing multi-collinearity, seven out of the 12 predictor variables were selected for entry into the stepwise regression procedure. The final model was: PD = (5.014 - 0.128 × proportion under age 15 years + 0.034 × life expectancy)2, with R2 of 80.4%. Using the prediction equation, 70 countries had PDs with "negative discrepancy", while 58 had PDs with "positive discrepancy".This study provided a regression-based PD model to calculate a "norm" number of PD for a specific country. A large PD discrepancy in a country indicates the needs to examine physician's workloads and their well-being, the effectiveness/efficiency of medical care, the promotion of population health and the team resource management.Physicians are the key personnel who make medical decisions and deliver medical treatments to patients. The adequacy of a country's physician workforce greatly influences the quality of healthcare. The literature indicated growth in health worker density significantly reduced the burden of disease, especially the burden associated with communicable diseases [1]. On the contrary, physician shortages translated into inadequate care [2,3] and greater costs for the treatment of disease [4,5]. However, physician size has been reported not always positively related with healthcare quality. Physicians may induce demands, and physician surpluses may drive unnecessary utilization of healthcare [6]. As the rapid progression of globalization, physician migration across country borders has become more intense than ever [7]. During the past years, th