Climate change has created potential major threats to global biodiversity. The multiple components of climate change are projected to affect all pillars of biodiversity, from genes over species to biome level. Of particular concerns are “tipping points” where the exceedance of ecosystem thresholds will possibly lead to irreversible shifts of ecosystems and their functioning. As biodiversity underlies all goods and services provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human survival and wellbeing, this paper presents potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, its plausible impacts on human society as well as the setting in addressing a global crisis. Species affected by climate change may respond in three ways: change, move or die. Local species extinctions or a rapidly affected ecosystem as a whole respectively might move toward its particular “tipping point”, thereby probably depriving its services to human society and ending up in a global crisis. Urgent and appropriate actions within various scenarios of climate change impacts on biodiversity, especially in tropical regions, are needed to be considered. Foremost a multisectoral approach on biodiversity issues with broader policies, stringent strategies and programs at international, national and local levels is essential to meet the challenges of climate change impacts on biodiversity.
References
[1]
Heller, N.E.; Zavaleta, E.S. Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations. Biol. Conserv. 2009, 142, 14–32, doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.006.
[2]
Travis, J.M.J. Climate change and habitat destruction: A deadly anthropogenic cocktail. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. B 2003, 270, 467–473, doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2246.
[3]
Keith, D.A.; Ak？akaya, H.R.; Thuiller, W.; Midgley, G.F.; Pearson, R.G.; Phillips, S.J.; Regan, H.M.; Araújo, M.B.; Rebelo, T.G. Predicting extinction risks under climate change: Coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models. Biol. Lett. 2008, 4, 560–563, doi:10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049.
[4]
Thomas, C.D.; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.N.; de Siqueira, M.F.; Grainger, A.; Hannah, L.; et al. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 2004, 427, 145–148.
[5]
Soto-Correa, J.C.; Sáenz-Romero, C.; Lindig-Cisneros, R.; de la Berrera, E. The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, from temperate forests, may not adapt to climate change. Plant Biol. 2012, doi:10.1111/j.1438-8677.2012.00716.x.
[6]
Sala, O.E.; Chapin, F.S.; Armesto, J.J.; Berlow, E.; Bloomfield, J.; Dirzo, R.; Huber-Sanwald, E.; Huenekke, L.F.; Jackson, R.B.; Kinzig, A.; et al. Biodiversity—global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 2000, 287, 1770–1774.
[7]
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate Change 2007-The Physical Science Basis; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2007.
[8]
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2012.
[9]
Omann, I.; Stocker, A.; Jaeger, J. Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach. Ecol. Econ. 2009, 69, 24–31, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.01.003.
[10]
Parmesan, C.; Yohe, G. A globally coherent ？？？ngerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 2003, 421, 37–42, doi:10.1038/nature01286.
[11]
Parmesan, C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2006, 37, 637–669, doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.
[12]
Walther, G.R.; Post, E.; Convey, P.; Menzel, A.; Parmesan, C.; Beebee, T.J.C.; Fromentin, J.M.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Bairlein, F. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 2002, 416, 389–395.
[13]
Bellard, C.; Berstelsmeier, C.; Leadley, P.; Thuiller, W.; Courchamp, F. Impact of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecol. Lett. 2012, 15, 365–377, doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x.
[14]
Leadley, P.; Pereira, H.M.; Alkernade, R.; Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F.; Proen？a, V.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Walpole, M.J. Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services; Technical series no. 50; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Montreal, PQ, Canada, 2010.
[15]
Beisner, B.E.; Haydon, D.T.; Cuddington, K. Alternative stable states in ecology. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2003, 7, 376–382.
[16]
With, K.A.; Pavuk, D.M.; Worchuck, J.L.; Oates, R.K.; Fisher, J.L. Threshold effects of landscape structure on biological control in agroecosystems. Ecol. Appl. 2002, 12, 52–65, doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2002)012[0052:TEOLSO]2.0.CO;2.
[17]
Dublin, H.T.; Sinclair, A.R.E.; McGlade, J. Elephants and fire as causes of multiple stable states in the Serengeti-Mara woodlands. J. Anim. Ecol. 1990, 59, 1147–1164, doi:10.2307/5037.
[18]
Hirota, M.; Holmgren, M.; van Nes, E.H.; Scheffer, M. Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science 2011, 334, 232–235, doi:10.1126/science.1210657.
[19]
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis; Island Press: Washington, DC, USA, 2005.
[20]
Yang, W.; Bryan, B.A.; MacDonald, D.H.; Ward, J.R.; Wells, G.; Crossman, N.D.; Connor, J.D. A Conservation Industry for sustaining natural capital and ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. Ecol. Econ. 2010, 69, 680–689, doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.028.
[21]
Sullivan, R.G.; Clark, M. Can biodiversity survive global warming? Chic. Wilderness J. 2007, 5, 2–13.
[22]
Wilson, R.; Gutiérrez, D.; Gutiérrez, J.; Martínez, D.; Agudo, R.; Monserrat, V. Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecol. Lett. 2005, 8, 1138–1146, doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00824.x.
[23]
Root, T.; Hughes, L. Present and Future Phenological Changes in Wild Plant and Animals. In Climate Change and Biodiversity; Lovejoy, T., Hannah, L., Eds.; Yale University Press: New Haven, CT, USA, 2005.
[24]
Thomas, C. Evolutionary Effects of Climate Change. In Climate Change and Biodiversity; Lovejoy, T., Hannah, L., Eds.; Yale University Press: New Haven, CT, USA, 2005.
[25]
Schweiger, O.; Settele, J.; Kudrna, O.; Klotz, S.; Kühn, I. Climate change can cause spatial mismatch of trophically interacting species. Ecology 2008, 89, 3472–3479, doi:10.1890/07-1748.1.
[26]
Eriksson, O.; Ehrlen, J. Landscape Fragmentation and the Viability of Plant Populations. In Integrating Ecology and Evolution in a Spatial Context; Silvertown, J., Antonovics, J., Eds.; Blackwell Publishing: Oxford, UK, 2001; pp. 157–175.
[27]
Young, A.; Boyle, T.; Brown, T. The population genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation for plants. Trends Ecol. Evol. 1996, 11, 413–418, doi:10.1016/0169-5347(96)10045-8.
[28]
Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araujo, M.B.; Betts, R.; Bradshaw, R.H.W.; Cedhagen, T.; Chesson, P.; Dawson, T.P.; Etterson, J.R.; Faith, D.P.; et al. Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 2007, 57, 227–236, doi:10.1641/B570306.
[29]
Cabral, J.S.; Jeltsch, F.; Thuiller, W.; Higgins, S.; Midgley, G.F.; Rebelo, A.G.; Rouget, M.; Schurr, F.M. Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of south African Proteaceae. Divers. Distrib. 2012, doi:10.1111/ddi.12011.
[30]
Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Global Biodiversity Outlook 3; United Nations: Montreal, Canada, 2010.
[31]
Nobre, C.; Leadley, P.; Fernandez, J. Appendix 2. Amazonian Forest. In Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services; Leadley, P., Pereira, H.M., Alkernade, R., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F., Proen？a, V., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Walpole, M.J., Eds.; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Montreal, PQ, Canada, 2010. Technical series No. 50.
[32]
Koulibaly, A.; Goetze, D.; Traoré, D.; Porembski, S. Conservatoire et Jardin Botaniques de Geneve, Chambésy, Switzerland. Candollea 2006, 61, 425–452.
[33]
Naeem, S. Ecosystem consequences of biodiversity loss: The evolution of a paradigm. Ecology 2002, 83, 1537–1552, doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2002)083[1537:ECOBLT]2.0.CO;2.
[34]
Mbow, C.; Smith, M.S.; Leadley, P. Appendix 4. West Africa: The Sahara, Sahel, and Guinean Region. In Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services; Leadley, P., Pereira, H.M., Alkernade, R., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F., Proen？a, V., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Walpole, M.J., Eds.; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Montreal, PQ, Canada. Technical series no. 50.
[35]
Scholes, R.J.; Biggs, R. Appendix 5. Miombo Woodlands. In Biodiversity Scenarios: Projections of 21st Century Change in Biodiversity and Associated Ecosystem Services; Leadley, P., Pereira, H.M., Alkernade, R., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J.F., Proen？a, V., Scharlemann, J.P.W., Walpole, M.J., Eds.; Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity: Montreal, PQ, Canada, 2010. Technical series no. 50.
[36]
Pereira, H.M.; Leadley, P.W.; Proenca, V.; Alkemade, R.; Scharlemann, J.P.W.; Fernandez-Manjarres, J.F.; Araújo, M.B.; Balvanera, P.; Biggs, R.; Cheung, W.W.L.; et al. Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science 2010, 330, 1496–1501.
[37]
Thomas, C.D.; Cameron, A.; Green, R.E.; Bakkenes, M.; Beaumont, L.J.; Collingham, Y.C.; Erasmus, B.F.; de Siqueira, M.F.; Grainger, A.; Hannah, L.; et al. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 2004, 427, 145–148.
[38]
Malcolm, J.R.; Liu, C.R.; Neilson, R.P.; Hansen, L.; Hannah, L. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv. Biol. 2006, 20, 538–548, doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00364.x.
[39]
Myers, N.; Mittermeier, R.A.; Mittermeier, C.G.; Da Fonseca, G.A.; Kent, J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 2000, 403, 853–858, doi:10.1038/35002501.
[40]
Kappelle, M.; van Vuuren, M.M.I.; Baas, P. Effect of climate change on biodiversity: A review and identification of key research issues. Biodivers. Conserv. 1999, 8, 1383–1397, doi:10.1023/A:1008934324223.
[41]
Cardinale, B.J.; Duffy, E.; Gonzales, A.; Hooper, D.U.; Perrings, C.; Venail, P.; Narwani, A.; Mace, G.M.; Tilma, D.; Wardle, D.A.; et al. Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity. Nature 2012, 486, 59–67.
[42]
Hof, C.; Araújo, M.B.; Jetz, W.; Rahbeck, C. Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity. Nature 2011, 480, 516–519.
