Modelado matemático de la transmisión de la gripe AH1N1

Human in fluenza is transmitted directly from an ill person to a healthy one, through air, during the symptomatic period of the disease. The virulence and antigenicity of the virus, host immunity and the environment interact with each other, afecting the person to person transmission of the virus. The main hypothesis of this model is that infection is initiated only by foreigners infected and that infectious natives produce new cases. The population has been divided into the following epidemiological classes or subgroups: Susceptible S, Latent (L, infected but not infectious), infectious I and removed R. From the systemic model a system of ordinary diferential equations discribing these interactions has been obtained. A qualitative analysis of the equilibrians has been made. We also have calculated the besid repreoductive number, R0, which is a classic measure of the trasmission of and infections isease and, from a biological point of view, is to de ned as the number of secundary cases that come about when a typical infected individual is inserted in a fully suceptible host population during its efective period of infectivity. If R0 < 1, the disease dies out. If R0 > 1, there is an outbreak of the disease.