A measure of success

A thought provoking commentary was published recently that proposes the use of several metrics to predict the future H-index of a scientist and accordingly the likelihood of his/her “success” [1]. Using a dataset that encompasses 3,085 neuroscientists, 57 Drosophila researchers, and 151 evolutionary biologists, the authors collated and analyzed history of publication, citations and funding. Based on inputs that include current H-index, the number of published articles, the years since first publication, the number of published papers in “prestigious” journals, and the number of distinct journals in which the papers are published, the authors constructed an algorithm ( http://klab.smpp.northwestern.edu/h-index.html webcite) with which they claim reasonable success in predicting a researcher’s future H-index. This methodology is an intriguing endeavor. Time will tell whether it has the same value as, or better value than, some of the stock charting programs used by Wall Street investment advisors to direct investment dollars into various equities.For journal editors, there is unfortunately no innovative proposal to predict a journal’s future success. In 2011, the Society of Chinese Bioscientists in America (SCBA) launched Cell and Bioscience [2,3] as the flagship journal of the Society. The intent was to establish a high quality, highly visible, Open Access journal for the Society and for the at-large international bioscience community. One reason there was a need for Cell and Bioscience is the rapid rise of bioscience and biomedical research in Asia [4]. Indeed, a 2011 Royal Society Report predicted that by 2013, the global share of total scientific articles published from China will outpace articles from the United States [5]. Cell and Bioscience is aptly positioned at the nexus of burgeoning scientific interactions between Asia and the rest of the world.As of this writing, Cell and Bioscience has been publishing for nearly two calendar years. The journal has been t