Modelo para Gest o de Lojistas em Shopping Centers

Like any investment, the shopping mall sector is subject to risks, among which is the retailer's discontinuity in the mall. This risk is related to the total cost of occupancy composed of the sum of the rent, rates and the mall's marketing fund. Thus, tools are needed to identify and analyze these risks. The aim of this study is to build a model based on the survival analysis's statistical technique, which enables the managers of a shopping mall to identify from what percentage of the total cost of occupancy in relation to sales Key Performance Cost (KPC), it is possible to gauge a retailer's continuity risk. We used a data sample consisting of 896 stores, located in six malls, for a period of 32 months. The results show that the model proved to be appropriate for indicating potential situations of default in advance. This predictive capability enables the shopping mall’s manager to adopt corrective measure to mitigate this kind of risk while there is still time.