Methodological basis for macroeconomic projections in countries exposed to pressures and shocks: Example of Serbia

The presented Macroeconomic Projections Model is based on a 'pre-established' model for projecting the balance of payment linked with the balance of gross domestic product use. Such a model is the 'authentic! one, designed by authors, i.e. based on a no theoretical concept of modelling the macroeconomic equilibrium, but it has a 'heuristic' (experiential) character. The idea for designing such a model comes from the fact that theoretical models involve numerous equations that are to be solved, with numerous parameters to be estimated, including also the problem of linearity (smoothness) of longterm analytical curves, as well as the problem of an undeveloped market, a closed economy or an economy that is fragile in its relations with foreign countries, the problem of 'turning' points, different internal or external shocks, etc.