A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle.The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease that causes significant economic losses worldwide. Mycobacterium bovis, the main causative agent of the disease, is transmitted between a variety of domestic and wild animals, and humans [1]. M. bovis is primarily transmitted by aerosols and may persist for long periods in the environment, especially in moist and shady zones, such as the water points or the woodlands [2]. Due to its widespread distribution and the sanitary and economic impact, eradication of bTB is considered a priority in the European Union [3]. A great amount of personal and financial resources are invested every year in order to control the diseas