Risk of African swine fever introduction into the European Union through transport-associated routes: returning trucks and waste from international ships and planes

Model results indicate that the relative risk for ASFV introduction through TAR in most of the EU countries (16) is low, although some countries, specifically Poland and Lithuania, concentrate high levels of risk, the returning trucks route being the analyzed TAR that currently poses the highest risk for ASFV introduction into the EU. The spatial distribution of the risk of ASFV introduction varies importantly between the analyzed introduction routes. Results also highlight the need to increase the awareness and precautions for ASF prevention, particularly ensuring truck disinfection, to minimize the potential risk of entrance into the EU.This study presents the first assessment of ASF introduction into the EU through TAR. The innovative model developed here could be used in data scarce situations for estimating the relative risk associated to each EU country. This simple methodology provides a rapid and easy to interpret results on risk that may be used for a target and cost-effective allocation of resources to prevent disease introduction.African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most devastating diseases of swine due to the high mortality caused (mainly in the hyper-acute and acute forms of the disease), the absence of effective vaccine, and the severe trade restrictions associated with its presence in the affected areas. ASF is caused by the infection of ASF virus (ASFV) which is transmitted by direct contact with fluids and excretions from infected animals. Blood, widely present in hyper-acute and acute forms of the disease, is considered the major route of direct transmission, containing high titers of virus for long lasting periods [1]. Other common ways of ASFV infection are the bites of infected ticks, and the indirect contact with various contaminated fomites and pig products, where ASFV remains infectious for long periods. As an example, ASFV infectivity persists more than 1000？days in frozen meat [2], 15？weeks in putrefied blood stored at room temperature