Grey forecasting of forest biodiversity dynamics in China

Analysis of forest biodiversity dynamics in China is characterized by grey uncertainty caused by the paucity of valuable data and information. The grey system theory may be helpful for such kind of analysis. Based on five times of Continuous Forest Inventory (CFI) in China during the period 1973–1998, we measured four indexes of forest biodiversity (Ifbd) with PSR (Pressure-State-Response) model, including Index of Pressure on Forest Biodiversity (Ipr), Index of Forest Species Diversity (Isp) and Index of Forest Ecosystem Diversity (Ieco). Meanwhile, the dynamics of forest biodiversity in the coming 10 years were forecasted with GM(1,1) grey models. The results showed that, in the coming two CFI periods (5 years per CFI interval), Ifbd would continue increasing with accelerated speed compared with the last 5 CFI periods. Besides, Ipr would continue increasing, Ieco would slightly fluctuate, and Isp would continue increasing with moderate speed. The research indicated that grey forecasting model based on PSR method was appropriate for forest resources management in China.