A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE NAMIBIAN MUTTON INDUSTRY

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Agricultural activities in Namibia contribute 5.5% of Namibia’s GDP, while 70% of the population relies on agriculture for employment and day-to-day living. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationships between the various price and non-price factors contributing to the supply dynamics within the mutton industry in Namibia. The autoregressive distributed lag approach to co-integration was used to determine the longrun and short-run supply response elasticities between economic and climatology factors on time-series data. Supply shifters showed significant short-run and long-run elasticities with regard to the mutton produced. Results also revealed that the system takes nearly two months to recover to the long-run supply equilibrium, should any disturbances occur within the supply system. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Landbou-aktiwiteite in Namibi dra 5.5% by tot die nasionale Bruto Binnelandse Produk, in ’n land waar meer as 70% van die bevolking afhanklik is van landbou om ’n bestaan te kan maak. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die verwantskappe te ondersoek tussen verskeie prys- en nie-prys-faktore wat bydra tot die aanboddinamika van die skaapvleisbedryf. ’n Outoregressie verspreide sloering benadering tot ko-integrasie is gebruik om die langtermyn en korttermyn elastisitiete tussen ekonomie- en klimaatfaktore vir skaapvleisaanbod te bepaal. Resultate het gewys dat aanbodfaktore betekenisvolle kort- en langtermyn elastisiteite toon. Resultate het ook getoon dat die sisteem twee maande neem om te herstel na die langtermyn aanbodekwilibruim, sou daar enige drastiese veranderings gebeur in die stelsel.