Simulation of Land Use Change in Xinzhuang Town under Different Scenarios Based on the CLUE-S Model and Markov Model
基于CLUE-S模型和Markov模型的城镇土地利用变化模拟预测——以江苏省常熟市辛庄镇为例

As an important research field of global environmental change and sustainable development, land use change has drawn much attention. Model simulation is the key in predicting future land use change. Land use models are an important technical means to better understand the process of land use change, driving mechanism, and ecological effect. Simulation and prediction of land use change under different scenarios would be of great significance for scientific decision making on land use planning and management. Based on historical land use data extracted from high-resolution satellite images acquired in 1980, 1991, 2001 and 2009 of Xinzhuang Town, the accuracy of predictions of CLUE-S model was first verified. Then, future land use change of the study area was predicted on the basis of the combination of the CLUE-S model and Markov model, with systematically analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use change under three different scenarios (historical trend, ecological protection, and basic farmland protection). Results showed that the predictability of the CLUE-S model at town scale seems to be satisfactory, which means that the CLUE-S model may have potential to be well applied at relatively small scales. Conversions from paddy fields to construction land, from paddy fields to fish ponds, and from water area to construction land, were the three major types of land use change. Rapid growth of construction land would remain in the future under all scenarios, especially under the historical trend scenario, with considerable decreases in paddy land concurrently occurring. Areas for rivers, convenient traffic, and developed economy would increase, which is referred to as farmland non-agriculturization. Forest, water bodies, and other types of ecological land would be well protected under the ecological protection scenario, with a total area of only 75.92 hm2 being transferred to other types, far less than the other two scenarios. Under the basic farmland protection scenario, paddy land and dry land would be well protected, with only 297.36 hm2 being converted into other land use types. In short, the regulatory effects of the basic farmland protection and ecological protection scenarios are obvious. Land use change in the future can be better controlled due to more restriction and preservation of forest land, water bodies, paddy land, and dry land. Rapid sprawl of construction land could therefore be restricted to some extent.