Scenario Analysis of Urban Energy Saving and Carbon Emission Reduction Policies: A Case Study of Beijing
城市节能与碳减排政策情景分析——以北京市为例

As the center of human social and economic activities, cities account for approximately 75% of the world's energy consumption and contribute more than 80% of global greenhouse gases (GHGs). Therefore, taking cities as the main place of energy-saving and emission-reduction is of great significance. With Beijing as a case and scenario analysis as the method, this study was conducted to investigate the possible impacts of different development ways on the future energy consumption and carbon emissions. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is used to simulate a range of pathways and to analyze how they would change the future trends of energy demand, energy structure and carbon emissions from the base year 2007 to 2030. Three scenarios have been designed to describe future energy strategies related to the development of Beijing city, namely the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the basic-policy (BP) scenario and the low-carbon (LC) scenario. The results show that under the LC scenario the total energy demand in Beijing is expected to reach 88.61 million metric tons coal equivalent (hereafter Mtce) by 2030, 55.82% and 32.72% lower than the values under the BAU and the BP scenario respectively and the total carbon emissions will also be 62.22% and 40.27% lower than the values under the above two scenarios respectively. In addition, the share of the clean and efficient energy in the final energy consumption mix under LC in 2030 will reach 57.75%, 16.93% and 11.25% higher than that under the BAU and the BP scenario respectively. In terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, the industrial sector will continue to act as the largest contributor under the BP and the LC scenario compared with the BAU scenario, while the building and transport sectors are identified as promising fields for achieving low carbon in Beijing over the next decades. The calculation results show that an integrated package of measures is most effective to save energy and reduce carbon emissions, although it faces the largest challenge to achieve the related targets.