Comparison of the Trends of Carbon Emissions between China, America and Poland Under Steady Economic Growth
经济平稳增长下中美波三国碳排放趋势的比较

The trend of carbon emission is widely concerned by the public and governments because it is an influence factor to the future climate change trend as well as the foundation of negotiation on emission reduction among countries. In this paper, we have predicted the energy-induced carbon emissions of China, U.S. and Poland during 2009-2050 under their different economic development levels with the dynamical model of carbon emission and conducted scenario analysis of the gross carbon emissions of the three countries. The results indicate that: 1) The carbon emissions for all these three countries demonstrate a similar inverted U-shaped trend and the peak years for China, U.S. and Poland are 2035, 2022 and 2032 respectively; 2) The energy intensity and carbon intensity of China, U.S. and Poland all tend to decline, and the decline rate of China and Poland are much faster than that of U.S.; 3) China and Poland have similar future energy structure among which the share of coal is absolutely large, followed by oil, natural gas and non-carbon energy. U.S. has a relatively reasonable energy structure among which oil occupies the largest share, followed by coal, natural gas and the non-carbon energy; 4) The discrepancy of per capita carbon emissions among the three countries is very significant. U.S. has the largest per capita emissions, but the per capita emissions for all the three countries tend to decline in the long run; 5) Under the target proposed by the European Union, the gross carbon emissions of China, U. S. and Poland decline by a small margin, while under the Copenhagen conference scenario, China can definitely realize the goal that its carbon intensity in 2020 would be reduced by 40%~45% compared with the level in 2005. But it is difficult to fulfill the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 50% by the year of 2050. The carbon emissions of U.S. and Poland will keep increasing and they will encounter more challenges in the future to attain their goals if they do not take any reduction measure.