Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of 5 Plants in China
气候变化对5种植物分布的潜在影响

The effects of climate change on distributions of 5 species, such as Tsoongiodendron odorum, Liriodendron chinese, Kingdonia uniflora, Boschniakia rossica and Acanthopanax senticosus in China were analyzed using CART (classification and regression tree) model and climate change scenarios of A2 and B2. The results showed that the current distributions of these plants except of T. odorum would decrease under climate change, and the new or total distribution region of T. odorum would increase, while those of other plants decrease. And the reducetions of the current, new or total distribution region of B. rossica and A. senticosus are the highest, then were L. chinese and K. uniflora. T. odorum and L. chinese would distribute towards north of current distribution regions, while K. uniflora towards southwest, and B. rossica and A. senticosus would dissipate at the period of 2081~2100. Moreover, the changes in distribution of these plants inconsistent with those in annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. There were no significant relation (P>0.05) between the annual mean air temperature, precipitation in China and current distribution of T. odorum, also with new or total distribution region of K. uniflora, and did not between the distribution of B. rossica and annual precipitation in China (P>0.05). It indicated that the spatial distribution pattern of these species would change with climate changes.