Forecasting Consumption of Refined Oil and Natural Gas in Sichuan Province
四川省成品油和天然气需求预测

In the paper,we gathered many data about energy and economy in Sichuan Province or other country.Based on the data,we analyzed the structure of energy consumption in Sichuan province.And moreover,the energy consumption of Sichuan province in 2010 and 2020 were predicted respectively.Through calculating of weighted average values of predictions,the energy consumption in 2010 and 2020 identified,which are 97.3894 million tons standard coal and 195.726 million tons standard coal respectively.According to the consumption ratio of refined oil and natural gas in total end-point energy consumption,then we forecasted the demand of refined oil and natural gas in 2010 and 2020 respectively.At last,we analyzed the balance between the supply and demand of refined oil and natural gas.We also gave some advice to decision-maker of our province on energy development.Though refined oil is not produced in Sichuan province,it is necessary to know how much refined oil will be consumed,which can help us to have a plan to buy,transport and deposit refined oil.Natural gas is abundant in Sichuan Province and it can be used to replace other energy.This paper provides many data to help decision-maker draw the 11th five-year energy plan and presents some methods for energy forecast.Using many forecasting methods and qualitative analysis method to calculate the average value of energy consumption,the end-point energy consumption can be forecasted more accurately.