Evaluation of Carbon Emission Efficiency for Shanxi Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis
基于随机前沿模型的山西省碳排放效率评价

In addition to constraints on domestic resource supply and environmental capacity, China’s economic development faces severe challenges from global climate change. Here, we define carbon emission efficiency as the ratio between carbon emissions from real output and optimal output. Based on stochastic frontier analysis we estimate the carbon emission efficiency for Shanxi province from 1995-2010 and these data are then compared to five other provinces in China. Our approach incorporates random disturbances to overcome the unavoidable noise in macro statistics, and results in a more appropriate evaluation of carbon emission efficiency. We found that Shanxi’s carbon emission efficiency is the lowest among the six provinces of central China, and declined continuously over the study period. Using Simulated Annealing Programming we constructed a carbon emission prediction model of Shanxi province to predict the feasibility of carbon reduction targets outlined in the‘12th Five-Year Plan for Shanxi Province’. This plan states that carbon emissions per GDP should be reduced by 17% by 2015 compared to 2010 levels. We found that carbon emissions per GDP for Shanxi can only be reduced by 13.26% . Based on this projected failure to reach the 2015 target we make a number of suggestions. First, the province should adopt a coal-based, circular-high-tech, multivariate development path and achieve low carbon transition on the condition that national energy security is guaranteed. Shanxi should capitalize on its special status as‘the reform zone of the comprehensive resource-based economy transition’. Second, the technological capability should be enhanced to improve energy utilization efficiency, strengthen low carbon competitiveness, eliminate backward production capacity, and optimize industrial structure. Third, economic leverage should be employed to steadily advance price reform for resource products, while advocating a low-carbon way of life and low-carbon society. These measures will enrich and perfect the theoretical system of carbon emission reduction and provide scientific support for central China’s conversion from a high- to low-carbon economy.