Model Modification and Empirical Analysis of the Relative Carrying Capacity of Resources
相对资源承载力模型的改进及其实证分析

Faced with a population explosion and limited resources, it is a problem for China to reasonably distribute human activity across heterogeneous areas, so regional carrying capacity is always a matter of popular concern. This paper systematically reviews research related to the relative carrying capacity of resources. We suggest that relative carrying capacity is not an appropriate method for appraising regional sustainability, but a sound way for coordinating spatial location and flows of population and economy. With a model of relative carrying capacity of resources, the theoretical population and GDP carrying capacity of a region can be calculated. By comparing the theoretical number with the actual data on population and GDP, the relative development state of the region can be clearly shown, which is helpful for selecting and adapting future development policies. Despite being the most popular computing method of relative carrying capacity of resources, the Weighted Linear Sum Model is defective in terms of weight selection and the failure to match different resources, which undermines the accuracy of the calculation. This paper presents a Geometric Model of relative carrying capacity based on a modification of the Weighted Linear Sum Model, which is suitable for appraisal of regions which are well-matched in terms of resources. According to the thinking on Main Functional Zones and the requirements for both population and economic carrying capacity, the possible development states of a research region can be summarized in 9 scenarios. Different scenarios require different development policies. Using the new model, we empirically analyzed population and economic relative carrying capacity of resources in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2006. The results indicated that the population in Hubei Province is overloaded while the economic carrying capacity is abundant relative to the whole country because slow economic development restricts the population carrying capacity. In the future, Hubei Province should become a core zone for development and economic conglomeration. There are still some limitations in recent research on the relative carrying capacity model, such as too much attention on water and land resource carrying capacity, and neglect of other natural resources such as energy. Also, there is more research on single resources but not much coupled research on multiple resources. These weak points should be addressed in future model modifications.