The Overall Assessment Model and Its Application of Coordinated Development in Small Cities and Towns based on GM (1,N)
基于GM(1,N)的小城镇协调发展综合评价模型及其应用

A small city or town is a composite ecosystem of society, economy, resources and environment, the coordinated development of which is a dynamic process involving multiple complicated factors. In this process, the key influencing factors are the development state and the inter-relationship of the four subsystems. The majority of existing evaluation models do not perform well in small cities and towns of China. There are two reasons. First, it is difficult to evaluate the coordinated development of small cities and towns with a set of standards, because such development is a dynamic evolution process, whose state changes through time. Second,, the coordinated development of small cities and towns, which are composite ecosystems, involves not only the coordination of each subsystem, but also that of the entire system. Based on the analysis of gray characteristics of coordinated development of small cities and towns, a (1, N)-based comprehensive Grey Model, is established to evaluate the coordinated development of small cities and towns according to the evaluation standards. For example, the coordinated development of the subsystems as well as the entire small cities or towns is evaluated. The development of one subsystem can stimulate the development another under a coordinated condition, so it can be concluded that there is a relative development among those subsystems to a certain degree. In this way, the coordination degree of the subsystems is described. Moreover, the evaluation model is applied in the case study of Hengdian Town (a small town in Zhejiang Province of China) as well as several other national sustainable development experimental units (Mengzhuang Town, Maoji Town, Qingxi Town, Qiuai Town). The results indicate that the coordinated development of these town has an upward tendency, To specify, the coordinated development trend of these small towns in 1993~2001 is evaluated by the model and the results show that each town has developed in a coordinated way with slight fluctuations during this period. Since the establishment of these experimental zones in 1993, adjustment to the development modes has been made to meet the demand of the sustainable development. Therefore, the development trend is coordinated in the long run; thought there is incoordination in terms of a short period or static sense. This conclusion is in accordance with the actual development state of these small towns, thereby demonstrating the practicability of the model. According to the modeling process, it can be concluded that the model can be used to describe the trend of coordination with a satisfactory coordination value, which is significantly relevant to time. An increasing coordinated value will indicate coordinated development in a small city or town irrespective to its absolute value.