CLUE-S based Scenario Prediction on Sustainable Land Use: A Case Study of Suburban District, Yangquan City
基于CLUE-S模型框架的土地可持续利用情景预测——以阳泉市郊区为例

Determination of the most ecologically sound configuration for towns and cities inhabiting millions of people is of importance in China. Improving land use efficiency and optimizing the allocation of land resources are the key measures to promote regional economic sustainable development. This paper presents a land use planning framework for land supply and demand in suburban districts of Yangquan City, Shanxi Province. The situation of land use change was analyzed based on land use and socio-economic data. By applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method, the weights of driving factors of land-use change were calculated. By setting different development goals, different development paths of land use change on a 15-year timescale were analyzed. A possible way in land use planning field under the framework of CLUE-S model was proposed. Results show that the land priority principle, ecological protection principle, and efficiency principle could in turn be considered in land use planning. The ecological protection path, speeding plunder path, and balanced development path were set as three prediction scenarios. Compared to the ecological protection path and speeding plunder path, the balanced development path requires a farm land area of 18 131.57 hm2 and a construction land area of 14 069.40 hm2 to fulfill the goals that the self-sufficiency rate of food increase at a rate of 27% and the GDP grows at a rate of 13% per year. The balanced development path was the most appropriate development path of the land use planning scenario among the three scenarios formulated. Under the framework of the CLUE-S model, driving factors, conversion factors, and land demand jointly determined changes in land use, providing reference for land use planning. The three characteristics are able to describe the natural environment, social impact, and use cost, respectively. Therefore, urban land use planning should be made from the viewpoint of integrated study so as to ensure cultivated land quantity and quality, regional food security, and sustainable development among population, resources, and environment. In summary, the framework of CLUE-S was successfully applied to land use planning for the study area. A balanced development strategy for towns, based on land space analysis and pattern optimization, can provide an effective approach for space development and management in small-scale regions. This framework can also guide regions with similar spatial scales, improving the effectiveness and operability of land use planning.