Decomposition Analysis on Dematerialization for the Further Development of Circular Economy
基于循坏经济深入发展的减物质化多重因素分解

Even as the concept of circular economy has made great progress in China, it is often misapplied. This paper starts from the concept of dematerialization, which is the key measure to promote the development of circular economy and maintain the equilibrium and function of the ecological-economic system. On the basis of the Laspeyres index and a complete decomposition model, we decomposed the factors related to dematerialization, and evaluated the dynamic effect on material saving due to material use intensity, economic structure, and economic scale, especially the rebound effect and dematerialized effect. We did empirical research on energy consumption during the period of 1985 to 2006 in China, calculating the effect of economy scale and material use intensity on changes in energy consumption, and analyzed the impact of economic structure adjustment on energy-saving. The result shows that expansion of economic scale is the major factor driving changes in energy consumption. The total amount of energy consumption in 21years is equivalent to 23.6×108 tons of coal. The inappropriate economic structure increased energy consumption by 1.82×108 tons of coal. From this data, we can conclude that adjustment of the economic structure played a negative role in the process of energy saving. The combined impact of economic scale and economic structure caused an increase in energy consumption. The impact of material use intensity on energy consumption was consistent, and the ratio of material use intensity of the secondary industrial sector to the total was the biggest, more than 76 percent, while primary industry and tertiary industry had relatively smaller ratios. The energy savings created by the dematerialized effect totaled 9.67×108 tons of coal, but this savings effect was canceled out by the expansion effect of economic scale, and thus there was an obvious rebound effect of energy consumption. Thus, research related to energy consumption should focus on decreasing energy intensity in secondary industry and improving energy utilization efficiency. In addition, we should emphasize the savings effect enabled by the proper adjustment of economic structure and control the rebound effect, and meanwhile adjust and control the path and pattern of material flow by a material intensity relative index. We also suggested that the level of Circular Economy be estimated based on the absolute dematerialization index to promote harmonious interaction between economic development and the ecological environment.