Decoupling Analysis between Arable Land Occupation and GDP Growth in Hebei Province
河北省耕地占用与GDP增长的脱钩分析

With opening to the outside world, China' s economy has made signiciant progress during last three decades. Rapid growth of economy inevitably requires a large quantity of resources, particularly arable lands. Arable land plays an important role in ensuring food security. The conflict between protection of arable land and growth of economy will become more and more intense, which draws much concern from the world. The problem that a large quantity of high quality arable lands is being occupied by construction has been an issue on the sustainable development of the economy in China. The relationship between occupied arable land and growth of economy has therefore been a meaningful focus. Based on a theory of decoupling, the authors employed indices of decoupling proposed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the status of decoupling proposed by Tapio to develop a model of decoupling. Then, the elasticity of decoupling was calculated and a coordinate graph of decoupling degree was produced.. In particular, the authors investigated the relationship between occupied arable land and growth of economy in Hebei province, China, from 1988 to 2007. Also, we discussed the status of decoupling at different stages, analyzed the results and tried to find out reasons associated with arable land occupied in order to address the problems. It was concluded that at the first stage from 1990 to 1999, elasticity values of decoupling vary smoothly, changing from a kind of strong decoupling status to a re-coupling status. The pressure from arable land occupied by construction increased. At the second stage from 2000 to 2005, elasticity values of decoupling changed significantly, showing a transition from a strong decoupling to a re-coupling. The pressure from arable land occupied by construction first decreased significantly and then increased. At the third stage from 2006 to 2007, elasticity values of decoupling decreased, showing the status becoming a weak decoupling, which could be indicative of increases in pressure from arable land occupied by construction. As a whole, elasticity values of the decoupling between arable land occupied by construction and non-agricultural GDP exhibited an "M"-shaped curve. This means arable land protection has already shown a marked positive effect. With a further development of economy in the near future, the status of decoupling will possibly show a trend to become re-coupling. The pressure from arable land occupied by construction will be likely to increase. So the management for arable land occupied by construction should be strengthened. Necessary policies and measures, such as economical and intensive utilization of arable land resources should be taken.