Quantitative Assessment of Advantage Value of Regional Virtual Water Strategy(AVRVWS) in China
中国虚拟水战略优势度评价

We describe an approach called Advantage Value of Regional Virtual Water Strategy (AVRVWS) which can be used to evaluate the feasibility of implementing a virtual water strategy and the regional economic, social and ecological effects of a global water resources management strategy. Based on context analysis and relevant impact factors, we established an assessment index system with 12 indices in 4 categories: water resource supply, demand for non-agricultural water resources, water resource management and agricultural development. The value of AVRVWS for 31 Chinese provinces is calculated using the comprehensive index model, and the provinces are then grouped into 4 categories ranging from high to low. The high advantage group includes Hainan, Tianjin and Beijing. The relatively high advantage group includes 9 provinces: Shanxi, Guangdong, Liaoning, Guangxi, Xinjiang, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian. The moderate advantage group includes 14 provinces: Qinghai, Hebei, Hunan, Jilin, Yunnan, Ningxia, Chongqing, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Gansu, Tibet, Inner Mongolia and Anhui. The low advantage group includes 5 provinces: Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Henan and Guizhou. These four groups can also be divided into two sub-types according to their virtual water input or output. Different suggestions about agricultural development, water resource management and virtual water research were put forward for the different groups. The regions which have a relatively advantageous setting and abundant water resources should intensify water use in agriculture in order to effectively utilize water resources, and improve research on the socioeconomic and ecological impacts of water use. The regions which are in the relatively advantaged groups and are short of water resources should gradually reduce water-intensive agriculture in order to reduce irrigation and should also study the impacts of virtual water use on the economy and ecology. The assessment results demonstrate notable regional discrepancies in the grades of AVRVWS throughout China, with most provinces are in the medium-grade category. The grades in eastern China are higher than in the western regions, and in the south and north are higher than that of the central regions.