Influencing Factors and Dynamic Effect Analysis of China's Carbon Emission Intensity
中国碳排放强度影响因素的动态效应分析

In recent years carbon emission factors decomposition analyses have focused on the contribution rate. Research on factors influencing stability, and the study of correlations between influencing factors and carbon emission intensity is scarce. Here, we analyzed carbon emission intensity using the improved Kaya identity, and broke it down into the carbon emission divisor, energy intensity, energy structure and industry structure. Because the carbon emission divisor is considered to be constant, the energy intensity, energy structure, industry structure were analyzed as influencing factors on carbon emission intensity. Energy intensity is expressed by energy consumption per GDP, energy structure is expressed by coal consumption proportion, and industry structure is expressed by tertiary industry proportion. The stability of these factors was tested from 1980-2009. The results show that the time series of these three influencing factors were stationary for carbon emission intensity. A test for co-integration of variables was performed and a Structural Vector Autoregression model (SVAR) of the carbon emission intensity and three influencing factors was constructed. Using an Impulse Response Function, we found a clear correlation between carbon emission intensity and the three influencing factors. The contribution of each factor was determined by Variance Decomposition. These results show that industry structure has the most significant shock effect, at -0.58%, on the carbon emission intensity of the three influence factors and its contribution rate is 41.434%. The shock effect of energy intensity is weaker than for industrial structure, at 0.28%, and a contribution rate of 9.794%. Energy structure has the weakest shock effect for carbon emission intensity, of -0.19%, and a contribution rate of 6.696%.