Structure Decomposition on Carbon Emission Intensity of Shanghai
上海碳排放强度结构分解分析

In this paper, factors of carbon emission intensity reduction in Shanghai from 2002 to 2007 were investigated. Using structural decomposition analysis, changes in carbon emission intensity of 25 industries were systematically generalized into 5 factors, i.e., final demand (GDP) composition, final demand in structure, carbon emission coefficients during intermediate production, carbon emission coefficient at the procedure of final demand, and full demand coefficient. Values of influences of the five factors on carbon emission intensity reduction and the contributions of these factors to carbon emission intensity reduction were calculated. It was found that final demand in structure, namely the final demand for products or services of different kinds, is the most important factor for reducing the carbon emission intensity. This factor has the largest influence value of 0.733%, which means that carbon emission intensity reduces to be 73.3% of the base-year level due to change in final demand in structure alone, and the largest contribution rate of 280%, which means that the decreased amount of carbon emission intensity by final demand in structure is 280% of carbon emission intensity reduction by all five factors. The influence value of final demand composition, namely household consumption, government consumption, investment, and net export, is 1.223%, which means that carbon emission intensity increases to be 122.3% of the base-year level due to change in final demand composition alone, and the contribution rate of final demand is -243%, which means that the increased amount of carbon emission intensity by final demand is 243% of the decrease of carbon emission intensity by all factors. Different from other studies, the growth of GDP will not definitely reduce the carbon emission intensity of Shanghai. It will, however, reduce the carbon emission intensity through changing the final demand for products of different types, but increase the carbon emission intensity through changing composition of GDP. It is necessary to enlarge the proportion of consumption of service and high technology products with low carbon emission coefficients so as to reduce the carbon emission intensity. In addition, the influence value of change in carbon emission coefficients during intermediate production is larger than that of carbon emission coefficients during the household consumption, so it is necessary to pay more attention to the industrial structure adjustment aimed at changing the structure of energy consumption. Last but not least, as to the secondary industry with a high full demand coefficient, their efficiency should be improved for potential of carbon emission intensity reduction.