Target Analysis of Cultivated Land Protection Area in Jiangsu Province in 2020 Based on Decoupling Index
基于脱钩指数的2020 年江苏省耕地保有量目标分析

Rapid growth of economy inevitably requires a large quantity of land resources. In the next 10 years, China’s economy will enjoy rapid development, so limited cultivated land resources will be faced with great pressure. At the same time, economic growth will also be the main cause of cultivated land consumption. Based on the domestic and foreign researches, this paper has analyzed the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land consumption and estimated the difficulty of achieving the cultivated land protection target. Decoupling theory is a theoretical approach put forward in the process of measuring the relationship between economic growth and substance consumption by international researchers in recent years. The word"decoupling"is derived from physics. Agricultural trade negotiators, economists and policymakers use "decoupling"to interpret the departure relationship between agricultural trade and policy measures. This paper has estimated the difficulty of achieving the target of cultivated land protection area and its gap in Jiangsu Province in 2020 by introducing the decoupling index and evaluation standard of the decoupling theory and combining the historical analysis and future forecast. Besides, it has calculated the decoupling index of achieving the cultivated land protection target with the method of trial interpolation. The results show that: 1) The decoupling index of economic growth and cultivated land consumption in Jiangsu Province took on fluctuated decline trend from 1979 to 2008 because of industrial structure adjustment and cultivated land protection policies; 2)There is too much pressure in achieving the cultivated land protection target of 2020 because only 12, 500 hm 2 cultivated land can be consumed during 2009 and 2020. Only if the decoupling index maintains not more than 0.0012, the target of cultivated land protection can be achieved. Therefore, in order to ensure the economic growth while achieve the cultivated land protection target, we must change the economic growth mode and take more positive policy measures.