Changing Characters of Cultivated Land Area and Its Driving Forces in China
中国耕地数量变化的突变特征及驱动机制

In this paper,the microwave analysis combined with turning points modeling techniques is adopted to study the characteristics of cultivated land change and driving forces during the period of 1949 to 2003 in China.The result showed that:1) The cultivated land area change in China happened in the scales of time series of 5 years,13 years and 27 years and the fluctuation in the scales of time series of 13 years and 27 years are prominent; 2) The turning points of the change presented in the year of 1953,1967,1977,1985 and 1994; 3) It was found that government policies,natural disasters and national economic development are the main factors,which led to the cultivated land area fluctuation.The government policy is the dominant diving forces followed by natural disasters,land degradation,grain production,GDP growth and population growth.Based on the analysis of microwave transformation coefficients of cultivated land area,population and GDP at the time scale of 27 years,we found that GDP and population growth directly contributed to the decline of the cultivated land area.