Establishment and Application of The Prediction Model of Macro-Economic Development in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
宁夏宏观经济发展预测模型的建立与应用

There are many methods to predict the economic development,such as subjective pre-measurement,time series pre-measurement,model pre-measurement and so on.The first one is wildly used in the situation that is short of exact data;the second is used when the data have relationship with the time series;and the third is adopted in the situation that there are internal links among the data.This paper uses the model pre-measurement to predict the status of economic development in Ningxia Hui autonomous region.Based on the theory of econometrics,a model for forecasting Ningxia macro-economy development in the future was developed and the economic development,investment,industrial structure and population status in Ningxia were analyzed.It was predicted that Ningxia would maintain high growth speed of economy,and per capita GDP would reach(25 000) Yuan RMB,which is 5 times of that in the year 2000;the population growth would slowdown;The rate of investment in Ningxia would decline along with the economical development;the resident living standard would unceasing increase.The prediction results provide a basis for the rational water resources allocation and the government planning.