Evaluation on Potential Predictability of Summer Climate over East Asia by an Air-Sea Coupled Model
一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估

By using secular ensemble hindcast results of a high resolution air-sea coupled model SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM),the potential predictability of the coupled model on climate anomaly of East Asia(EA),especially of China is evaluated.Results show that the SINTEX-F has some skill in predicting summer rainfall,geopotential height at 500 hPa and surface air temperature,but the skill of surface air temperature is relative lower.The comparison between observation and hindcast shows that the coupled model can reproduce well the most spatial features of EA abnormal climate and its evolution,especially for geopotential height at 500 hPa.The model has relative high potential predictability on annual variation of summer rainfall anomaly in the middle of China,but the magnitude of the hindcast result is relative weak;there also has some potential predictability on extreme climate over the west of China.