Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China Due to Technological Progress: A Comparison of Two Phases (1953-1977 and 1978-2009)
基于技术进步的中国能源消耗与经济增长：前后两个30年的比较

Based on statistical data of energy consumption and GDP during the period 1953-2009, it can be divided into two phases (1953-1977 and 1978-2009) according to the index of energy consumption per unit. Then, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth was compared. Results show that for the first phase, the energy consumption per capita grew with increasing the GDP per capita. When the energy consumption per capita increased from 6.67 tec to 17.9 tec, the elasticity of energy consumption decreased from 3.59 to -0.58. The relationship between the two variables is negatively correlated. For the second phrase, with increasing the GDP per capita, the energy consumption per capita grew with fluctuation. When the energy consumption per unit decreased from 17.5 tec to 5.05 tec, the elasticity of energy consumption fluctuated more greatly. The problem of energy consumption can be taken as an environmental problem as more environmental problems are caused by energy consumption. Therefore, the Impact Population Affluence Technology (IPAT) equation can be made use of to analyze the problem. Using the IPAT equation, energy consumption is decomposed into three parts, i.e., population, economy, and technology. Then, the relation that the growth rate of energy consumption is concerned with the growth rate of population, economy, and technology progress is shown. The growth rate of energy consumption per unit can be taken as technology progress. With technology progress, the reason why the energy consumption and economic growth between the two phases are different was analyzed. Results show that 1) there was a positive correlation between energy consumption and economic growth during 1953-1977 due to technological progress. Economic growth improves energy consumption and energy consumption pushes economic growth. However, during the period 1978-2009, the economic growth was less dependent on energy consumption and the growth of energy consumption is suppressed. Technological change and progress are the primary reason for the differences between the two phases. 2) Energy consumption per unit was markedly different between the two phases, which made energy consumption decrease. 3) According to the IPAT equation, it is more important to improve technology to reduce energy consumption as the natural population growth rate cannot be changed in a short time, and it is infeasible to reduce economic growth rates for China to reduce energy consumption. 4) As projected, from 1980 or 1990 to 2009, a 33.7×109tec or 23.7×109tec was saved, which is primarily due to technological progress. During the Twelfth Five Plans, the GDP per capita would increase from 4531.0 yuan to 6297.4 yuan. The energy consumption per capita would increase from 2.27 tec to 2.98 tec.