Limits on Construction Land Use in the Pearl River Delta
珠江三角洲建设用地开发利用极限研究

This paper discusses the availability of land for construction use in the Pearl River Delta, with restrictions based on food security, use suitability and the need for an integrated life-support environment. Analysis based on food security restrictions shows that if land use conforms to the government-s Regulations on the Protection of Basic Farmland, then a baseline of farmland will be maintained. An analysis based on suitable use and integrated life-support environment factors shows that the maximum land area available for construction use in the Pearl River Delta is from 97.12×104 hm2 to 110.57×104hm2, 23.30 to 26.52 percent of the total area. The currently undeveloped portion totals 21.08×104hm2 to 34.53×104hm2. Based on the rate of urban expansion from 1997 to 2004, unused construction land in the PRD will be used up in no more than 13 years. Depletion of available construction land is projected to occur in Zhuhai, Foshan and Zhongshan in 3 to 4 years, in Shenzhen and Dongguan in 7 to 8 years, and in Guangzhou in 13 years. Since land use and land supply are not perfectly matched, we assume that land supply will be depleted even more rapidly than estimated and cities in the PRD will soon experience a shortage of land. Although other cities in the Pearl River Delta, including Huizhou, Zhaoqing and Jiangmen, have a relatively abundant supply of land available for construction, there will also be conflicts over land resources due to rapid economic growth and the increasing use of land for construction. Overall, the supply of land for construction use in most cities of the Pearl River Delta is quite limited. There should be strict control of the land supply in order to improve the efficiency and quality of land use.