Panel Data Analysis of Per Capita Household Energy Consumption, Income and Carbon Emissions
人均生活能源消费、收入和碳排放的面板数据分析

Per capita energy consumption is an important indicator that reflects the economic development level and people’s quality of life of a nation.As a form of end-use energy,household energy consumption has great impacts on energy consumption structure,energy supply-demand relationship,as well as energy saving and emission reduction.Taking 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China,which are divided into urban and rural consumer groups,as the research unit,this paper has analyzed the internal connection and change trend of per capita household energy consumption(EN),per capita income(IN)and per capita carbon emissions(CE)by using panel granger causality tests and parameter estimations of panel data models.The results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among these three variables,which show regular change trends in the spatial process.Among the three zones of eastern,central and western regions,and urban and rural areas of the same region,the fixed effect differences between EN and CE,which are estimated by variable intercept models are mainly affected by IN.Low-income western region has smaller cardinal number of household energy consumption and carbon emissions but is senstive to the changes of income as compared with the Eastern and Central regions.The fixed effects of the north-south direction mainly reflect the impacts of geographical factors.The cold climate in northern region incurs more energy consumption and carbon emission,while the South is just the opposite.Changes of intercept in urban areas are mostly influenced by energy consumption structures.The intercepts of provinces that consume more electricity,heat(exclusive of the direct carbon emissions)are less than 0,while those of provinces that consume more coal,oil(higher carbon emission factor)are more than 0.To cope with the climate change,we should make great efforts to adjust the energy consumption structures and implement environmental impact assessments of the whole process as well as energy saving and emission reduction measures while developing renewable clean energy.