An Assessment of Regional Capacity of Energy Supply in China
中国能源保障水平分区初探

With the rapid development of the country's economy, more and more risks of energy security have been escalated. Studying national energy security is not only required by energy risk management, but also by country's accelerated economic development. Firstly, this article analyzes the basic situation of energy resources storage, energy production and energy consumption in China. Secondly, the article draws out an index system for energy security, which including such six indices as percentage of energy resources reserves, dependent degree on energy importation, change of energy resources inventory, elasticity coefficient of energy production, elasticity coefficient of energy consumption, and distance of energy resources transportation. Subsequently the weight of these indices is calculated through factor analysis. Lastly, the article evaluates the capacity of energy supply in 30 provinces of China through grey cluster analysis. As a result, the capacity of energy supply of 30 provinces is classified into such three categories as high, medium, and low levels. The capacity of energy supply in Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan is low. Average reserve of energy resources in these provinces and municipalities is 1.55 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 0.56% of the total reserves in the country. Average Gross Domestic Product in these regions is 4,446.15 billion RMB Yuan, accounting for 30.81% of the total of the country's GDP. Beijing, Zhejiang and Guangdong are important economic centers and with greater energy consumption. The capacity of energy supply in Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Guizhou, Yunnan is at medium level. The capacity of energy production in these regions is 0.62 billion tons of standard coal equivalent, accounting for 44.04% of country's total production. Energy consumption in these regions is 1.09 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 54.02% of the total consumption in the country. The capacity of energy supply in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Xinjiang is higher. Energy reserve in these regions is about 169.69 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 60.72% of total reserves in the country. The capacity of energy production in these regions is about 0.72 billion tons of standard coal equivalents, accounting for 52.62% of the total production in the country. The study shows that grey cluster method is practical in energy security analysis. The method used in this study breaks through limits of traditional energy planning and is significant to energy development and energy risk management.