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资源科学  2011 

Long-Term Trends in Annual Runoff and the Impact of Meteorological Factors in the Baiyangdian Watershed
白洋淀流域年径流变化趋势及气象影响因子分析

Keywords: Runoff,Nonparametric Mann-Kendall Method,Hurst Exponent Method,Pettitt Change-point statistics
径流量
,Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,Hurst指数法,Pettitt突变点检测法

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Abstract:

The nonparametric Mann-Kendall method was used to detect long-term trends and determine the significant level of annual runoff observed at hydrologic stations in the Baiyangdian watershed. The Hurst exponent method was applied to analyze the sustainability of trends in annual runoff, which was then combined with the results of the Mann-Kendall test to examine characteristics of future trends in annual runoff. It was found that in general the upper reaches of the Baiyangdian watershed showed a more statistic...

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