ANALYSIS OF RIVER LOW-FLOW EXTREMES AND STUDY ON MODEL PREDICTION
河流枯水极值分析与模型预测研究

Taking trunk stream and tributaries of the Lancangjiang drainage basin in Southwest China as a case,this paper gives a general examination of the low flow characteristics and runoff replenishment as well as intra annual variation of the runoff and low flow distribution of the river along with low flow model application analysis.Low flow prediction and calculation by using sequential data ranging from 27 to 31 years from 11 statins were conducted aided by model of runs on the basis of low flow minimum monthly discharge test and the displayed stochasticity.Results indicated that the negative run length years was 2 13,or smaller than the annual aver age value of the minimum monthly discharge.It is thus clear that duration of low flow was short which should be controlled and overall planned in the process of river exploration.The above studies proved that the runs arithmatics provides an economical and valuable means of research on low flow extremes analysis and prediction.