Analysis of the Long Term Climate Trend of the Surface Air Temperature in IAP AGCM Seasonal Ensemble Forecast
IAP AGCM模式对地面气温长期趋势的预报分析

The influence of the long-term linear trends on the seasonal forecast skill of the surface air temperature in summer and winter over China is investigated using both observations and ensemble seasonal forecast output from the numerical model IAP AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences)during the period from 1979 to 2004. The results show that the temperature during the 26 years show a warming trend over most of China while the warmin...