Quantitative Assessment and Improvement to Correction Technology on Prediction System of Shot-Term Climate Anomaly
IAP短期气候距平预测系统的定量评估及订正技术的改进研究

Prediction capability of prediction system of short-term climate anomaly (IAP PSSCA) is quantitatively evaluated after a set of 13-year and 5-member ensemble experiments have been carried out. It is shown that IAP PSSCA demonstrates encouraged prediction capability of summer precipitation anomalies in China, especially for strong summer precipitation anomalies which caused climate disasters, such as serve drought or flood in East China. The predictive effects have apparent difference between regions, for example, Southeast China including the region of the Yangtze River and South China has the highest skill over the country. Ensemble prediction is essential for short-term climate prediction because ensemble prediction is more stable than single prediction. Furthermore, improvement to correction technology is also undertaken.