A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model for ENSO Prediction and 1997/1998 ENSO Forecast
一个可供ENSO预测的海气耦合环流模式及1997/1998 ENSO的预测

An ENSO forecast system was established by designing an initialization to the coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model which was developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and systematic forecast experiments were performed. The results indicated that the correlation skill between the prediction and observation in eastern and central equatorial Pacific was above 0 52 up to at least 18 months in advance. By using this forecast system, the 1997/1998 El Nio was predicted successfully, and the benefit were obtained from the predicted SSTA to the prediction of the rainfall in China in summer.