MODELING LAND USE CHANGE IN NAIMAN COUNTY OF INNER MONGOLIA
内蒙古自治区奈曼旗土地利用变化预测研究

Based on land use data from 1995 to 1999, and combined with driving forces of population growth and economic development, this paper applies GKSIM model to simulate land use changes in Naiman county of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The results show that forest land in Naiman will increase from 171 171 hm 2 in 1995 to 197 363 hm 2 in 2015. Agricultural land will stabilize at the level of 18 000 hm 2. With a slight decline in recent years, grassland will keep in about 98 000 hm 2 . Area of non agricultural land will continuously increase to 31 000 hm 2 in 2015. Area of other land will drop from 326 759 hm 2 in 1995 to 302 655 hm 2 in 2015. The trend of land use change indicates ecological and environmental situation in Naiman county will become stable or even be improved to some extent in the next 15 years.