Energy-Saving Potentials in Beijing based on Industrial Structures
北京市产业结构的节能潜力分析

Saving energy is one of the crucial issues for fully implementing the scientific concept of development and building conservation society.In its 11th Five Year Plan,Beijing has set up a target which reducing its energy intensity by about 15% by 2010 compared with 2005.By building an energy-economy model,this paper studies the impacts of investment,energy price and technological progress on energy demand,forecasts energy demand and conservation potential during 2006 to 2010 based on some possible economic growth scenarios,and puts forward policy recommendations to realize less energy demand in this period in Beijing.As an energy-input international metropolis,Beijing's energy consumption is affecting the regional energy production and supply pattern profoundly.To have a thorough understanding of Beijing's energy consumption and growth situation is of great importance to the accomplishment of its overall energy-saving strategy.Through brief analysis between modernization level and energy consumption in Beijing City,the paper points out that using the elasticity coefficient and unusual energy consumption per 10~4 Yuan GDP have lose its validity,and also very difficult to assure the future potential and direction of energy saving.Based on these,from the new angle of industrial structure evolution,the paper has carried on a quantitative analysis to the relationship between structure evolution and energy consumption.The results are:1)The industrial structure evolution have a decisive influence on energy consumption,and total energy consumption will maintain current level or drop gradually along with the evolution of industrial structure in Beijing City;2) Since China's economic reform and opening up to the outside world,the evolution coefficient of industrial structure has increased one unit,which means it save approximately 0.46-ton standard coal per ten thousand Yuan(GDP);3) The rapid development of ferrous metallurgy Industry had directly stimulated a fast growth in energy consumption,and caused the local ecological environment degradation.Obviously,improved industrial structure is an important way to reduce energy consumption.Therefore,the improvement of industrial structure will be the key in Beijing City.