Scenario Prediction of Regional Ecological Footprint: A Case of Jilin Province
区域生态足迹情景预测——以吉林省为例

Ecological footprint model focuses on the evaluation of ecological sustainability, and lacks predicative ability based on the dynamic characteristics of socioeconomic development. In order to explore the socioeconomic driving factors of variations of ecological footprint, time series of ecological footprint of Jilin province from 1994 to 2003 was calculated and analyzed. During the period from 1994 to 2003, the ecological footprint of Jilin province had grown from 4 009.49×104hm2 to 5 930.07×104 hm2, meanwhile, its ecological capacity had grown from 3 205.80×104 hm2 to 3 477.00×104 hm2. And as a result, the ecological deficit appeared and continued growing. The ecological footprint of Jilin province increased, mostly owing to the rise in household consumption and energy consumption. From 1994 to 2000, the ecological footprint per cap of Jilin province was lower than the global ecological capacity per cap. The development of Jilin province was sustainable in theory, but the ecological footprint per cap of Jilin province had exceeded the global ecological capacity since 2001. The development risk of Jilin province had grown. From 1994 to 2003, the ecological footprint per cap (except fossil fuel consumption) of Jilin province was lower than its ecological capacity, but the ecological footprint of fossil fuel consumption had grown from 0.67hm2 per cap (1994) to 1.03hm2 per cap (2003) with annual growth rate of 4.89%, so the increase of the fossil fuel consumption resulted in the ecological deficit of Jilin province directly. Therefore, the household consumption and the energy intensity were selected as variables and the predictive model of regional ecological footprint was established. The predicted data of the ecological footprint per cap of Jilin province from 1994 to 2003 was compared with its calculated data. The results indicates that the prediction error is lower than 4.3%, and the correlation coefficient is 0.97 (n=10); the predicative model interprets the trend of the ecological footprint of Jilin province well; it can be used to predict and analyze ecological footprint reliably. Lastly, combined with scenario analysis, the ecological footprint per cap of Jilin province from 2004 to 2010 was predicted, and the effects of variables on the variations of ecological footprint were analyzed quantitatively. The results shows that in scenario 4, the ecological footprint per cap of Jilin province is the highest and runs up to 3.55 hm2 by 2010; in scenario 3, the ecological footprint per cap is the lowest, which is 2.98 hm2 in 2010; in scenario 1, the ecological footprint per cap of Jilin province is 2.99 hm2 in 2010; in scenario 2, the ecological footprint of Jilin province is 3.53 hm2 per cap in 2010. The effect of household consumption on variations of ecological footprint is more greater than that of energy intensity.