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The Initial Error Analysis of Mesoscale Low on Meiyu Front Based on the Pseudo-inverse Perturbation
基于假反扰动的江淮梅雨锋低涡初始误差分析

Keywords: pseudo-inverse perturbation,singular vector,initial error,Meiyu Front,low vortex
假反扰动
,奇异矢量,初始误差,梅雨锋,低涡

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Abstract:

The singular vectors(SVs) is calculated with one Meiyu front mesoscale low simulation trajectory as base state,then the initial error is discussed with the pseudo-inverse perturbation:one kind of special perturbation formed with SVs.The pseudo-inverse perturbation is similar to initial error to certain extent; hence the initial error analysis could be implemented using pseudo-inverse perturbation.The slow-growing SVs dominate pseudo-inverse perturbation,while the quick-growing SVs,which are responsible for most of simulation error,are relatively weaker.The pseudo-inverse perturbation indicates some initial error:on 850 hPa the pressure trough to the west of the low is not deep enough,while on 500 hPa the pressure trough on Bohai sea should have extended to the south-west further and the pressure ridge to the east of pressure trough on Bohai sea should have reached to the north further.All these error scatter around the key system and have the mesoscale feature.The efficiency of different physical fields in pseudo-inverse perturbation of improving forecast are different,and one kind of dynamic correlation exists among different physical fields,which makes the spatial distribution of pseudo-inverse perturbations tend to be consistent.

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