Mission reliability analysis based on Monte-Carlo simulation of stochastic PERT network
基于随机PERT网络Monte-Carlo仿真的任务可靠性分析

To research the supporting reliability of complex system,the mission reliability is defined and PERT network is used to model the process of supporting mission.In considering that the duration of the works are random variables subjected to β distribution,used Monte-Carlo simulation method to simulate the duration of stochastic PERT network,and analyzed the result of simulation comparatively.During the analysis,PSO used to estimate the β distribution parameters,and then the probability characteristics of the network’s duration,the mission reliability of the support system,analyzed the importance of line and work to mission reliability.The simulation and analysis of an equipment maintenance PERT network shows that the use of Monte-Carlo method to simulate the task duration and analysis the task reliability of supporting system is not restricted to the probability characteristics of the works’ durations and the logical relationship between the works,so its applicability is broader than the analytical methods.In addition,the parameters of task reliability curve can be estimated with high accuracy by particle swarm optimizer.