Combination forecasting of dendrolimus punctatus occurrence area based on geostatistics order
基于地统计学定阶的松毛虫发生面积组合预测*

This paper proposed a dendrolimus punctatus occurrence area combination forecasting model(GS-ARIMA-SVM) based on geostatistics(GS) for solving local optimal and time consuming long in the traditional optimal delay order method.Firstly,forecasted the linear change discipline of the dendrolimus punctatus occurrence areas by autoregressive integrating moving average(ARIMA),and then determined the nonlinear change discipline order by GS,reconstructed the data,predicted the nonlinear part by support vector machine(SVM) and got the combination model’s forecasting results lastly.It test the proposed model performance by dendrolimus punctatus occurrence area of the Chaoyang city of Liaoning province.The results show that the proposed model improves the forecasting accuracy compared with other models,it can reflect dynamic discipline of dendrolimus punctatus occurrence.