Numerical experiments for the impacts of temperature and precipitation variation on the growth and development of winter wheat

The growth process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-wheat model assuming the daily temperature increase -1, 0,1, 2℃ and daily precipitation increase -20, -10, -5, 0, 5, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. The case study site is Zhenjiang City of Jiangsu Province in the east China. Simulation results show that the impacts of temperature variation on winter wheat is stronger than that of precipitation. Climate warming would speed development rate and shorten phonological period. In general, the adverse effect of climate change on grain yield is greater than that of its beneficial effect, especially when the climate becoming cooler and dryer. The increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation would reduce the plant extractablc soil water content.