Simulations on the effect of increments in key industrial sources on gaseous pollutant concentrations in the Beibu Gulf
重点产业源增长对北部湾地区气态污染物模拟的影响

An anthropogenic emissions inventory for Beibu Gulf for the year 2007 was developed based on the emissions census data, the medium/long term reference scenarios (REF15/REF20) and long term control scenarios (SCEi20) were also projected based on the industrial planning data. Using these emissions data, the present air quality and future changes under different scenarios in Beibu Gulf were depicted by WRF-Chem. The simulated monthly mean SO2 and NO2 concentrations are close to observations. The levels of pollutants concentrations are high (low) in Guangdong and Guangxi (Hainan) provinces. The straddling transportation characteristics indicates that the pollutants concentrations are mainly effected by the local emissions, while the emissions from other regions are less important, the emissions from Guangdong province has relatively large impact on SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Guangxi and Hainan provinces. The emissions changes have significant impacts on future air quality. The levels of SO2 and NO2 increase in Beibu Gulf due to the significant increment of emissions except for SO2 in Maoming, which decreases attributed to the reduced SO2 emissions under REF15 scenarios. Since O3 has more complex chemical reactions, the concentrations increase in several cities, but decrease in others. The significantly increased emissions under REF20 scenarios leads to a large increase of SO2 and NO2 concentrations, however, the increment is relatively small for O3. The increment of gaseous pollutants concentrations is a litter smaller for SCEi20 scenarios than those of REF20.