Forecast of China''s carbon emissions based on modified IPAT model
基于改进IPAT模型的中国未来碳排放预测

Abstract This study analyzed and calculated China’s gross and per capita carbon emissions from 1987 to 2010 by assuming that carbon emission is proportional to energy consumption.It was found that there was a lack of intrinsic coherence in the carbon emission development before and after 2002,indicating that the data before 2002 can not characterize the future trends.In view of this finding,statistic data of carbon emission from 2002 to 2010,together with variables introduced to represent scientific and technological progress,were employed in an improved IPAT model to predict and analyze China’s carbon emissions from 2010 to 2050.The results showed that the emission peak will occur in 2030,with a national gross emission of 3647.1836 Gg and the per capita emission of 2.6211 t.Prior to 2030,the mean growth rate of annual gross emission will be 2.89%,and whereas during 2030—2050,it will fall in a rate of 2.09%.In 2050,China’s gross carbon emission was predicted to be 2366.4522 Gg and per capita 1.8521 t.The method used and data derived in this research will be helpful for future policy making on the carbon emission in China.