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环境科学学报 2013
Influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumptions in Chongqing based on STIRPAT model
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Abstract:
Carbon emissions from a city can be analyzed quantitatively to trace the impact of each human activity type on the environment. The analytic results provide useful guidance to carbon emissions policy making and sustainable urban development. This paper built a STIPRAT-based multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationship between carbon emissions from energy consumption and a list of human activity indices, including population, per capita GDP, energy intensity, proportion of the tertiary industry, and level of urbanization. For an empirical case study with time-series data (1980-2010) from the city of Chongqing, it was found that for 1% increase in population, per-capita GDP, energy intensity, and urbanization, there was 0.963%, (0.398+0.463lnA)%, 0.059%, and 0.266% increase in carbon emissions in the city, respectively, in which A refers to per capita GDP.Population contributed the most significantly to carbon emissions. In comparison, every 1% increase in the strength of the tertiary industry led to 0.093% emission reduction.