Uncertainty analysis on greenhouse gases reduction cost in CDM project
CDM项目温室气体减排成本的不确定性分析

Based on clean development mechanism(CDM), using Monte Carlo method, this paper simulated uncertainties existed in calculating GHGs(Greenhouse Gases) emissions and GHGs reduction costs and analyzed how the uncertainty coefficients influence the decision variables. The basic conclusions are: different emission factors, carbon emissions, carbon emission mitigation cost, and carbon mitigation benefits are highly inter related. In all factors, the emission factors from power generation and CH4 emission factors from coal mining are the main factors. This can give great contributions and references for the estimation of risks and CDM negotiations.