Uncertainty Analysis for Evaluating Methane Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Landfill in Beijing
北京市生活垃圾填埋场产甲烷不确定性定量评估

In order to improve the accurate evaluation of CH4emissions from municipal solid waste landfill in Beijing, FOD-model and Monte Carlo method were conducted. Based on local data, national data and experts' experience, the uncertainty of FOD-model and parameters' sensitivity analysis were identified. And we quantified effect of various parameters on model output. The results showed that 95% probability distribution range of CH4 emission from landfill was (11.8-19.76)×104 t·a-1 in Beijing. The mean value was 15.58×104 t·a-1 with uncertainty range of -24.26%-26.83%. Among all the parameters MCF(after 2000) showed the greatest impact on landfill CH4 emission in 2008, and its contribution to the uncertainty of emission result was 41.4%. This research can improve the assessment accuracy and quality on CH4 emission from municipal solid waste landfill in Beijing, as providing scientific basis to improve the landfill greenhouse gas inventory and data collection.