Uncertainty Analysis of Health Risk Assessment Caused by Benzene Contamination in a Contaminated Site
基于不确定性分析的健康环境风险评价

Lots of uncertainties lie in the procedure of environmental risk assessment (ERA) and how to analyze them exactly is studied comprehensively. Based on the investigation of petroleum contamination in a contaminated site, the representative benzene contaminant in soil was selected to analyze uncertainty of environmental risk resulting from drinking and inhalation exposure routes, using the Monte-Carlo simulations. According to the analysis results, the total health risk average value caused by benzene contamination from the alkene factory is 1.18×10-4 for the people living on the district A, which is more than the risk limit of U.S.EPA 10-6 and means contamination hazard to health. In four different areas of the alkene factory, the main source of risk comes from the cracking equipments with 1.17×10-4. With the impact factors of the uncertainty, the contamination harm to the human health's probability is different referring to the different risk level, which is a criteria value meaning no harm to health issued by different institution. The study results provide an important foundation of effective control and remediation actions of contaminated sites.